In a word: Yes.
In a sentence: Yes, but I'd like to win four more games.
In a longer explanation:
I'm thrilled to have dispatched the Detroit Pistons in six games. I'm thrilled that the Cavaliers are in their first ever NBA Finals. I was very close to cloud nine as I watched the final seconds tick off the clock and the trophy presentation. It felt as good ... maybe even better ... than 1997 when the wheel play worked to perfection, and the Indians defeated Baltimore and headed to the World Series.
At the start of the season, I predicted the Cavs (along with Bill Simmons, BTW) to win the east, and then lose in the NBA Finals. Sports Guy, if I remember correctly, predicted Suns over Cavs, I predicted Mavs over Cavs. My honest expectation was for the Cavs to reach the Eastern Conference Finals and take it to 6-7 games. Hence, the Cavs have reached both my expectations and my predictions for them.
So, will I be sad if they lose the Finals to the Spurs? Yes. I want them to win. I want them to win (believe it of not) more than I wanted the Steelers to beat Seattle (or maybe that's just the present in me talking ... we'll see how I really feel in 2 months or so). But, at the same time, I won't be crushed if they lose, the way I was crushed after game seven of the 1997 World Series (and I still haven't forgiven you, Jose Mesa).
Cheering on a team that exceeded expectations, and has a chance to win the title is a great place to be. I want to enjoy it.
Because win or lose this year, the expectation is that the Cavaliers win the 2008 NBA Finals. And that will put me in a totally different mindset.
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Saturday, June 02, 2007
pwnage?
I'm used to the idea of seeing a team/city dominate another team/city thoroughly.
I'm not used to my team/city being on the giving end of the whooping.
And yet, it seems that I'm staring that down.
The Cavs are up 3-2 on the Detroit Pistons with game six tonight in Cleveland with a chance to move to the NBA Finals for the first time in history.
The Tribe has won five in a row against the Detroit Tigers to open up a 4.5 game lead in the AL Central.
And the most recent wins for both teams seemed to rip the heart out of their Detroit counterpart. The Pistons held all but one player scoreless for the last 12+ minutes of the game, including both overtimes, and lost. The Tigers pounded out 11 runs and have a four-run lead in the ninth inning, and lost. Cleveland didn't just win those two games. They took shot after shot on the mouth, and then demoralized Detroit and won anyways. They left Detroit shaking their heads, wondering if they could do anything. Believe me, I know. I've seen my teams on the wrong end of those types of games all too often.
It seems like pwnage is happening. By the Indians. By the Cavs. By the city of Cleveland.
And yet ... the Clevelander in me is still waiting for the other shoe to drop. For something like "the Shot" or "The Mesa" or "The Drive" or "The Fumble" ... but I feel like it's not gonna happen this time. This isn't like last year against Detroit, where I was amazed the Cavs won three games and had a chance. This isn't like 1997 where we had a lead in a back-and-forth World Series. This is a basketball series we've been dominating, and losing by not making a clutch shot, not getting dominated and winning a game or two with luck. This is the type of run the White Sox had against the Indians two years ago.
It really feels different.
God, I hope it is.
I'm not used to my team/city being on the giving end of the whooping.
And yet, it seems that I'm staring that down.
The Cavs are up 3-2 on the Detroit Pistons with game six tonight in Cleveland with a chance to move to the NBA Finals for the first time in history.
The Tribe has won five in a row against the Detroit Tigers to open up a 4.5 game lead in the AL Central.
And the most recent wins for both teams seemed to rip the heart out of their Detroit counterpart. The Pistons held all but one player scoreless for the last 12+ minutes of the game, including both overtimes, and lost. The Tigers pounded out 11 runs and have a four-run lead in the ninth inning, and lost. Cleveland didn't just win those two games. They took shot after shot on the mouth, and then demoralized Detroit and won anyways. They left Detroit shaking their heads, wondering if they could do anything. Believe me, I know. I've seen my teams on the wrong end of those types of games all too often.
It seems like pwnage is happening. By the Indians. By the Cavs. By the city of Cleveland.
And yet ... the Clevelander in me is still waiting for the other shoe to drop. For something like "the Shot" or "The Mesa" or "The Drive" or "The Fumble" ... but I feel like it's not gonna happen this time. This isn't like last year against Detroit, where I was amazed the Cavs won three games and had a chance. This isn't like 1997 where we had a lead in a back-and-forth World Series. This is a basketball series we've been dominating, and losing by not making a clutch shot, not getting dominated and winning a game or two with luck. This is the type of run the White Sox had against the Indians two years ago.
It really feels different.
God, I hope it is.
Friday, June 01, 2007
Hatred
One of the best things about being a sports fan, is you get an outlet for anger and hatred. These are natural, human emotions that shouldn't be placed onto singular humans in a "real" context. But, in the world of sports, during a heated contest, the outlet is there. And as long as you can separate the worlds, it's very healthy.
And, so, I've come to the conclusion that you really need someone, something, somewhere to hate in the world of sports.
And I've always been a little torn on finding something/one/place that I can really hate the whole year round.
I grew up in Cleveland, and most folks there hate Pittsburgh. It's a great rivalry that stems from football, the Browns and the Steelers. The problem though, is that while I'm a Cleveland fan almost all the time, my one exception is football. I'm a Steelers fan to the core. It's how my dad (Youngstown native) raised me. I can't change it, even if I want to. So, while I grew up hating the Browns, I can't hate Cleveland all year 'round, because of my love for the rest of the city.
So, I've been honestly searching. Until this past weekend. When it finally hit me.
I hate Detroit.
Hate them with a passion.
This past weekend, I was simultaneously watching Cavs-Pistons on TV while gamecasting Indians-Tigers online. And every ounce of my sports being was venomously rooting against Detroit. I found myself hating them, the way I hated Ric Flair as a young NWA/WCW/Sting fan. There was nothing more satisfying than seeing them lose, except seeing them lose to my team.
And it fits the criteria. I can hate them the entire year. As an Indians fan, I've been without a real rival ... well, my entire life. As a Cavaliers fan, the only team I could possibly ever hate as much as Detroit is Chicago, and the sting of "The Shot" isn't quite as potent when compared to the magic of MJ. He did it to everyone, we were just one victim. As an Avalanche fan, I already hate the Red Wings. And, who knows, maybe my renewed hatred of Detroit will give me a renewed interest in the NHL?
That only leaves football. And, I'll admit, it's hard to hate Detroit when they're so pathetic, such a non-threat, and not even in the same conference as my favorite team. But, I found a loophole. Detroit is close enough to Ann Arbor. So football season is covered, too.
At long last, I have my year-round place to hate. And I love it. I feel my sports fandom is finally becoming complete.
And, so, I've come to the conclusion that you really need someone, something, somewhere to hate in the world of sports.
And I've always been a little torn on finding something/one/place that I can really hate the whole year round.
I grew up in Cleveland, and most folks there hate Pittsburgh. It's a great rivalry that stems from football, the Browns and the Steelers. The problem though, is that while I'm a Cleveland fan almost all the time, my one exception is football. I'm a Steelers fan to the core. It's how my dad (Youngstown native) raised me. I can't change it, even if I want to. So, while I grew up hating the Browns, I can't hate Cleveland all year 'round, because of my love for the rest of the city.
So, I've been honestly searching. Until this past weekend. When it finally hit me.
I hate Detroit.
Hate them with a passion.
This past weekend, I was simultaneously watching Cavs-Pistons on TV while gamecasting Indians-Tigers online. And every ounce of my sports being was venomously rooting against Detroit. I found myself hating them, the way I hated Ric Flair as a young NWA/WCW/Sting fan. There was nothing more satisfying than seeing them lose, except seeing them lose to my team.
And it fits the criteria. I can hate them the entire year. As an Indians fan, I've been without a real rival ... well, my entire life. As a Cavaliers fan, the only team I could possibly ever hate as much as Detroit is Chicago, and the sting of "The Shot" isn't quite as potent when compared to the magic of MJ. He did it to everyone, we were just one victim. As an Avalanche fan, I already hate the Red Wings. And, who knows, maybe my renewed hatred of Detroit will give me a renewed interest in the NHL?
That only leaves football. And, I'll admit, it's hard to hate Detroit when they're so pathetic, such a non-threat, and not even in the same conference as my favorite team. But, I found a loophole. Detroit is close enough to Ann Arbor. So football season is covered, too.
At long last, I have my year-round place to hate. And I love it. I feel my sports fandom is finally becoming complete.
I'm No Analyst
And that's why I'm changing up this blog.
It's fun to pretend that I'm an analyst. Fun to pretend I really know what I'm talking about. But, really, I have too much bias, and I'd rather just talk about what i like and what I hate, and what it means to be a fan and the joys and frustrations of fandom, then to try to break down match-ups and make prognostications.
So, I'm refocusing my efforts to emphasize the fan side more than the analyst side.
It's fun to pretend that I'm an analyst. Fun to pretend I really know what I'm talking about. But, really, I have too much bias, and I'd rather just talk about what i like and what I hate, and what it means to be a fan and the joys and frustrations of fandom, then to try to break down match-ups and make prognostications.
So, I'm refocusing my efforts to emphasize the fan side more than the analyst side.
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Changes
Going to be changing the format of how I do this blog here in the near future.
Keep your eyes peeled and don't go too far.
Keep your eyes peeled and don't go too far.
Saturday, April 28, 2007
NFL Mock Draft -- Final
Well, it's draft day. The only day I eat unhealthier than I do on Super Bowl Sunday. So, I thought I'd get my final round 1 mock up.
1. Oakland: JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
Pretty much a guarantee at this point in time
2. Detroit: Calvin Johnson, WR GT
Although I expect him (or the pick) to be traded to Tampa Bay, Atlanta, or Denver
3. Cleveland: Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin
The smart pick. So, that means Cleveland will probably go with Brady Quinn
4. Tampa Bay: Gaines Adams, DE Clemson
Either in Tampa or Detroit, Gaines is the pick here.
5. Arizona: Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma
Could be Levi Brown, but I think AD is just a better value
6. Washington: Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame
I expect Quinn to be the pick, but Washington won't be the team. I see Miami or Chicago trading up to this spot to get Quinn.
7. Minnesota: Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville
Too much potential to pass up
8. Atlanta: LaRon Landry, S LSU
Possibly the best defensive player in the draft, even though they probably want Okoye
9. Miami: Levi Brown, OT PSU
If this is Miami's pick, it's easily Brown. If it's Washington, it might be Leon Hall
10. Houston: Leon Hall, CB Michigan
11. San Fransisco: Teddy Ginn Jr, WR OSU
His speed is too salivating, and his potential to be a game changing on offense and special teams too tempting. They still need to get another weapon for Alex Smith and he fits the bill
12. Buffalo: Marshawn Lynch, RB Cal
Need to replace McGahee, and the drop off after Lynch is astounding.
13. St. Louis: Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas
14. Carolina Panthers: Grego Olsen, TE Miami
Great Value, great talent, fills a need.
15. Pittsburgh: Patrick Willis, LB Ole Miss
Best LB in the draft to a team that really needs a playmaking LB. This would be a Steeler's fan dream come true (him or Levi Brown ... and no, it't not a coincindence that in my two mocks those are the two players they got). If he's gone, I imagine Darrelle Revis is the pick
16. Green Bay: Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU
They want Lynch or Ginn, probably in that order, but really need a playmaker on offense. Bowe is the next best one. Might try to trade down in this scenario, and will have to hope to find value in the 2nd or 3rd round for a RB.
17. Jacksonville: Reggie Nelson, S Florida
Too much value to pass this guy up at this point. Not the greatest need, but too much talent
18. Cincinnati: David Harris, LB, Michigan
19. Tennessee Titans: Dwayne Jarrett, WR USC
They hope Ginn falls to them, but Jarrett (and his size) isn't a bad consolation prize, especially with the connection to Chow
20. New York Giants: Lawrence Timmons, LB FSU
21. Denver: Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska
Great value, and it fills a need. What a coup for Denver
22. Dallas: Darrelle Revis, CB Pitt
Great steal. Revis could go top 15
23. Kansas City: Robert Meachem, WR Tennessee
Another team hoping Ginn or another top WR fall to them. Meachem isn't a bad catch, though, and fills a great need
24. New England: Paul Posluszny, LB PSU
Good value, good fit, fills a need.
25. New York Jets: Alan Branch, DT Michigan
Nothing but BPA here
26. Philadelphia: Joe Staley, OT Central Michigan
The Eagles are in a position to go for good value and depth, and Staley is an excellent choice
27. New Orleans: Aaron Ross, CB Texas
Good value pick, and helps the NO Secondary which looked suspect at times
28. New England: Jarvis Moss, DE Florida
A tweaner that could go top-15, and now gets to be used in both his positions by the Patriots. This is scary.
29. Baltimore: Trent Edwards, QB Stanford
Boller never panned out, and McNair is old. They make a minor reach to grab Edwards, but only because Staley is gone
30. San Diego: Chris Houston, CB Arkansas
Another step to improve the defense
31. Chicago: Ben Grubbs, OG Auburn
I'm half expecting the Bears to trade up for Quinn, but if they don't Grubbs is an amazing talent and an amazing value. They could also go WR (Sidney Rice), but there is better value in the 2nd-3rd rounds for WR.
32. Indianapolis: Brandon Meriweather, S Florida
Good value pick, and while the Colts don't have many needs, a good, versatile safety can only help.
And that's that ... we'll see if I get more than 10 right.
1. Oakland: JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
Pretty much a guarantee at this point in time
2. Detroit: Calvin Johnson, WR GT
Although I expect him (or the pick) to be traded to Tampa Bay, Atlanta, or Denver
3. Cleveland: Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin
The smart pick. So, that means Cleveland will probably go with Brady Quinn
4. Tampa Bay: Gaines Adams, DE Clemson
Either in Tampa or Detroit, Gaines is the pick here.
5. Arizona: Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma
Could be Levi Brown, but I think AD is just a better value
6. Washington: Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame
I expect Quinn to be the pick, but Washington won't be the team. I see Miami or Chicago trading up to this spot to get Quinn.
7. Minnesota: Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville
Too much potential to pass up
8. Atlanta: LaRon Landry, S LSU
Possibly the best defensive player in the draft, even though they probably want Okoye
9. Miami: Levi Brown, OT PSU
If this is Miami's pick, it's easily Brown. If it's Washington, it might be Leon Hall
10. Houston: Leon Hall, CB Michigan
11. San Fransisco: Teddy Ginn Jr, WR OSU
His speed is too salivating, and his potential to be a game changing on offense and special teams too tempting. They still need to get another weapon for Alex Smith and he fits the bill
12. Buffalo: Marshawn Lynch, RB Cal
Need to replace McGahee, and the drop off after Lynch is astounding.
13. St. Louis: Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas
14. Carolina Panthers: Grego Olsen, TE Miami
Great Value, great talent, fills a need.
15. Pittsburgh: Patrick Willis, LB Ole Miss
Best LB in the draft to a team that really needs a playmaking LB. This would be a Steeler's fan dream come true (him or Levi Brown ... and no, it't not a coincindence that in my two mocks those are the two players they got). If he's gone, I imagine Darrelle Revis is the pick
16. Green Bay: Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU
They want Lynch or Ginn, probably in that order, but really need a playmaker on offense. Bowe is the next best one. Might try to trade down in this scenario, and will have to hope to find value in the 2nd or 3rd round for a RB.
17. Jacksonville: Reggie Nelson, S Florida
Too much value to pass this guy up at this point. Not the greatest need, but too much talent
18. Cincinnati: David Harris, LB, Michigan
19. Tennessee Titans: Dwayne Jarrett, WR USC
They hope Ginn falls to them, but Jarrett (and his size) isn't a bad consolation prize, especially with the connection to Chow
20. New York Giants: Lawrence Timmons, LB FSU
21. Denver: Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska
Great value, and it fills a need. What a coup for Denver
22. Dallas: Darrelle Revis, CB Pitt
Great steal. Revis could go top 15
23. Kansas City: Robert Meachem, WR Tennessee
Another team hoping Ginn or another top WR fall to them. Meachem isn't a bad catch, though, and fills a great need
24. New England: Paul Posluszny, LB PSU
Good value, good fit, fills a need.
25. New York Jets: Alan Branch, DT Michigan
Nothing but BPA here
26. Philadelphia: Joe Staley, OT Central Michigan
The Eagles are in a position to go for good value and depth, and Staley is an excellent choice
27. New Orleans: Aaron Ross, CB Texas
Good value pick, and helps the NO Secondary which looked suspect at times
28. New England: Jarvis Moss, DE Florida
A tweaner that could go top-15, and now gets to be used in both his positions by the Patriots. This is scary.
29. Baltimore: Trent Edwards, QB Stanford
Boller never panned out, and McNair is old. They make a minor reach to grab Edwards, but only because Staley is gone
30. San Diego: Chris Houston, CB Arkansas
Another step to improve the defense
31. Chicago: Ben Grubbs, OG Auburn
I'm half expecting the Bears to trade up for Quinn, but if they don't Grubbs is an amazing talent and an amazing value. They could also go WR (Sidney Rice), but there is better value in the 2nd-3rd rounds for WR.
32. Indianapolis: Brandon Meriweather, S Florida
Good value pick, and while the Colts don't have many needs, a good, versatile safety can only help.
And that's that ... we'll see if I get more than 10 right.
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Random Thoughts
I know it's not just me, but I still have to make this statement:
The NBA Playoffs have way too many off-nights. The Cavaliers should be playing, at the minimum, game three tonight, not game two. Their series, if it ends in four, should be wrapping up Saturday or Sunday, not starting up in a new city for the first time. I sometimes wonder why more sports fans don't follow the NBA as closely as I do, and then something like this comes along to remind me why. Hope the large checks from TNT make it worthwhile to alienate some fan bases, David.
The Mavs and Spurs get a shot to even their series at home tonight. I won't be shocked to see San Antonio go down 2-0, but I'll be 100% shocked if it happens to Dallas. In fact, I think it's more likely that Dallas goes on a run and wins the next four against Golden State, then it is that Golden State wins even one more game. Avery will get his boys prepared, come in with a decent game plan, stick to it, and once they get the monkey off their backs and beat Don Nelson and the Warriors, they'll keep doing it.
I've come to the conclusion that Joe Thomas is simply the best available player in the NFL Draft. ESPN just posted a "risk study" on the "bust potential" for each position in the first round. Offensive Line ranked pretty safe. So, when you combine that with his skill and size, I just don't see how you would want a Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Brady Quinn, Gaines Adams, JaMarcuss Russell, or anyone else ahead of this guy. I'm a big fan of hanging on to your draft picks, but I'd give up quite a few to move up for a shot at taking this guy.
I'm wondering how to treat A-Rod's April. On one hand, he's on a record setting pace like nobody has any business being on. On the other hand, I hate to follow just about any story involving the Yankees or the Red Sox. And, on my mythological third hand, I'm comparing A-Rod's April this year to Chris Shelton's April last year. Just saying.
NFL Draft is this weekend. Party at my house Saturday if you can make it. Homemade, hand-battered beer batter onion rings! I'll try to get up a final first round mock before then, but no promises.
The NBA Playoffs have way too many off-nights. The Cavaliers should be playing, at the minimum, game three tonight, not game two. Their series, if it ends in four, should be wrapping up Saturday or Sunday, not starting up in a new city for the first time. I sometimes wonder why more sports fans don't follow the NBA as closely as I do, and then something like this comes along to remind me why. Hope the large checks from TNT make it worthwhile to alienate some fan bases, David.
The Mavs and Spurs get a shot to even their series at home tonight. I won't be shocked to see San Antonio go down 2-0, but I'll be 100% shocked if it happens to Dallas. In fact, I think it's more likely that Dallas goes on a run and wins the next four against Golden State, then it is that Golden State wins even one more game. Avery will get his boys prepared, come in with a decent game plan, stick to it, and once they get the monkey off their backs and beat Don Nelson and the Warriors, they'll keep doing it.
I've come to the conclusion that Joe Thomas is simply the best available player in the NFL Draft. ESPN just posted a "risk study" on the "bust potential" for each position in the first round. Offensive Line ranked pretty safe. So, when you combine that with his skill and size, I just don't see how you would want a Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Brady Quinn, Gaines Adams, JaMarcuss Russell, or anyone else ahead of this guy. I'm a big fan of hanging on to your draft picks, but I'd give up quite a few to move up for a shot at taking this guy.
I'm wondering how to treat A-Rod's April. On one hand, he's on a record setting pace like nobody has any business being on. On the other hand, I hate to follow just about any story involving the Yankees or the Red Sox. And, on my mythological third hand, I'm comparing A-Rod's April this year to Chris Shelton's April last year. Just saying.
NFL Draft is this weekend. Party at my house Saturday if you can make it. Homemade, hand-battered beer batter onion rings! I'll try to get up a final first round mock before then, but no promises.
Friday, April 20, 2007
NBA Playoff Preview
Been a while. Oh well. Sue me. Missed the boat on an MLB preview, but I'm here now for an NBA Playoff Preview.
We'll Start with the first round series.
(1) Pistons vs. (8) Magic
I'm just waiting for the media to start playing up Darko's return to Detroit. Wouldn't it be great if he hit a game winning shot or two?
The Big Question: Will the Pistons sleepwalk through a few games and give them away?
The Pick Pistons in 6. (So, yes, they will sleepwalk and give away two games)
(2) Cavs vs. (7) Wizards
A rematch from last years first-round, only
a) LeBron is no longer a playoff rookie
b) Some key members of the Cavs have developed nicely (Gibson, Andy, Sasha)
c) The Wiz are without some key players
The Big Question: How will Mike Brown handle his bench in the playoffs?
The Pick: Cavs in Five (Mike Brown uses Eric Snow too much in one game, and the Cavs lose ... probably game 3)
(3) Raptors vs. (6) Nets
Did you know that Vince Carter used to play for the Raptors, and then tanked his way out of town? Or that the Raptors have vaulted from #1 draft pick status to division champion status in one year? If you didn't, you'll know it soon after the media hypes it for a week.
The Big Question: How did a team as talented as the Nets only get the #6 seed in the Eastern Conference?
The Pick: Nets in seven (and Vince Carter hits the game winning shot in Toronto)
(4) Heat vs. (5) Bulls
(Bulls have home-court advantage)
Another rematch from last years playoffs. This one just as interesting as it was last year.
The Big Question: Will the hot/cold shooting of the Bulls and their lack of interior scoring kill them in this series, or in another series?
The Other Big Question: How's the shoulder, Flash?
The Pick: Bulls in 7 (after Big Ben hurts Flash' shoulder in game six)
(1) Mavs vs. (8) Warriors
Did you know that the Warriors are the only team the Mavs didn't beat this regular season? You will, by the time you watch five minutes of any coverage of the Mavs this week.
The Big Question: Will the Warriors, after more than a decade out of the playoffs, simply be happy to be there?
The Pick: Mavs in four (that happiness won't last long)
(2) Suns vs. (7) Lakers
Yet another rematch from last year. If the Lakers were fully healthy and fully gelled, this would be a good series. That's not the case.
The Big Question: How many games can Kobe win by himself?
The Pick: Suns in 5 (Kobe goes for fiddy in game three, and the Lakers win)
(3) Spurs vs. (6) Nuggets
This is the second-most intriguing match-up of the first round for me. The Spurs are a veteran team, with championship experience, and are built to succeed in the playoffs. The Nuggets are up-and-coming, and their terrific two-headed monster is finally starting to gel.
The Big Question: Can Marcus Camby be effective on Tim Duncan?
The Pick: Nuggets in six (I'm not betting against AI in the first round)
(4) Jazz vs. (5) Rockets
(Rockets have home-court advantage)
I hate Carlos Boozer.
The Big Question: Can T-Mac get out of the first round?
The Other Question: How long until we're sick of that question?
The Pick: Rockets in 5 (T-Mac will leave no doubt, and I really hope Yao neuters Boozer)
We'll Start with the first round series.
Eastern Conference
(1) Pistons vs. (8) Magic
I'm just waiting for the media to start playing up Darko's return to Detroit. Wouldn't it be great if he hit a game winning shot or two?
The Big Question: Will the Pistons sleepwalk through a few games and give them away?
The Pick Pistons in 6. (So, yes, they will sleepwalk and give away two games)
(2) Cavs vs. (7) Wizards
A rematch from last years first-round, only
a) LeBron is no longer a playoff rookie
b) Some key members of the Cavs have developed nicely (Gibson, Andy, Sasha)
c) The Wiz are without some key players
The Big Question: How will Mike Brown handle his bench in the playoffs?
The Pick: Cavs in Five (Mike Brown uses Eric Snow too much in one game, and the Cavs lose ... probably game 3)
(3) Raptors vs. (6) Nets
Did you know that Vince Carter used to play for the Raptors, and then tanked his way out of town? Or that the Raptors have vaulted from #1 draft pick status to division champion status in one year? If you didn't, you'll know it soon after the media hypes it for a week.
The Big Question: How did a team as talented as the Nets only get the #6 seed in the Eastern Conference?
The Pick: Nets in seven (and Vince Carter hits the game winning shot in Toronto)
(4) Heat vs. (5) Bulls
(Bulls have home-court advantage)
Another rematch from last years playoffs. This one just as interesting as it was last year.
The Big Question: Will the hot/cold shooting of the Bulls and their lack of interior scoring kill them in this series, or in another series?
The Other Big Question: How's the shoulder, Flash?
The Pick: Bulls in 7 (after Big Ben hurts Flash' shoulder in game six)
Western Conference
(1) Mavs vs. (8) Warriors
Did you know that the Warriors are the only team the Mavs didn't beat this regular season? You will, by the time you watch five minutes of any coverage of the Mavs this week.
The Big Question: Will the Warriors, after more than a decade out of the playoffs, simply be happy to be there?
The Pick: Mavs in four (that happiness won't last long)
(2) Suns vs. (7) Lakers
Yet another rematch from last year. If the Lakers were fully healthy and fully gelled, this would be a good series. That's not the case.
The Big Question: How many games can Kobe win by himself?
The Pick: Suns in 5 (Kobe goes for fiddy in game three, and the Lakers win)
(3) Spurs vs. (6) Nuggets
This is the second-most intriguing match-up of the first round for me. The Spurs are a veteran team, with championship experience, and are built to succeed in the playoffs. The Nuggets are up-and-coming, and their terrific two-headed monster is finally starting to gel.
The Big Question: Can Marcus Camby be effective on Tim Duncan?
The Pick: Nuggets in six (I'm not betting against AI in the first round)
(4) Jazz vs. (5) Rockets
(Rockets have home-court advantage)
I hate Carlos Boozer.
The Big Question: Can T-Mac get out of the first round?
The Other Question: How long until we're sick of that question?
The Pick: Rockets in 5 (T-Mac will leave no doubt, and I really hope Yao neuters Boozer)
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Misconseptions in Sports
I doubt it's a secret that one of my peeves in life is uninformed statements from announcers and other "experts" in sports. So, I thought I'd address a few of these today. Cuz I can.
Overtime against Xavier proved that Ohio State is better without Greg Oden
This is one I've heard so many times in the last week that it drives me crazy. There is a big, telling, obvious reason why Xavier was outperformed considerably in overtime by Ohio State. And it has little to do with Greg Oden.
The real reason is that Xavier was trying to recover from a stomach punch. They had the game won, and then it was snatched away from them by a desperation three-point shot. They gained a large lead, fought off a comeback attempt, and had a win in their grasps, and then watched it slip away on a one-in-a-hundred shot. That demoralizes a team, plain and simple. And when that happens, it really effects your play on the court.
Of course, the other reason would happen to be the talent level between the two teams. The longer two teams play, the more likely it is that the more talented team wins. It's why we see more upsets in single-elimination tournaments, than in best-of-seven series. Simple and plain.
Of course, Ohio State's play with Oden on the bench against Tennessee does little to help my argument, but his play against Memphis sure helps me.
The Cleveland Cavaliers cannot win an NBA title without a good "second banana" to LeBron James
There is a popular notion that a superstar needs a second superstar to win a title. Jordan had Scottie. Shaq had Kobe. D-Wade had Shaq. Duncan had Robinson and/or Parker.
Blah. Blah. Blah.
I call a foul.
I say with enough "third bananas" and a good second string line-up, a dominant superstar can win a ring. And I think the current Cavs are situated nicely in such a role.
Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden make pretty good "third bananas". Hughes might not have the dominant jump shot you want out of a #2 option, but he's got enough defense to give him minutes, and his court vision is pretty good, too. Gooden might not be consistent, but a guy that can honestly go on the floor on any given night and give you a 20-10 game is a good enough option. Add in other lesser players like Anderson Varajeo, Sasha Pavlovic, Daniel Gibson, and Zydrunas Ilgauskus, and you've got enough support around you to outrank a second banana.
And, besides that ... Scottie Pippen wasn't the real key to helping Jordan to his titles. It was Dennis Rodman, Horace Grant, Steve Kerr, and Luc Longley.
Four #1 seed in the Final Four would be bad for the NCAA Tournament
The crutch everyone leans on to support this: the NCAA Tournament is unpredictable, and that's what gives it such great appeal.
Great. I agree.
But you know what? As of now, everyone "knows" that all four top seeds will not make it to the Final Four. That's ... *gasp* ... something predictable. If it happened once ... just once ... it'd be enough to create doubt in your mind and remove the last ounce of predictability from the tournament.
The NBA MVP will be either Dirk or Nash
I honestly think this was true at the All-Star game, but is no longer true, no matter how many ESPN and TNT pundits tell me it still is. It's become a four-man race. And currently, my top four ballot looks like this:
1. Dirk
2. Kobe
3. LeBron
4. Nash
That's enough for now ... I'm gonna try to put together a full MLB preview later this week.
Overtime against Xavier proved that Ohio State is better without Greg Oden
This is one I've heard so many times in the last week that it drives me crazy. There is a big, telling, obvious reason why Xavier was outperformed considerably in overtime by Ohio State. And it has little to do with Greg Oden.
The real reason is that Xavier was trying to recover from a stomach punch. They had the game won, and then it was snatched away from them by a desperation three-point shot. They gained a large lead, fought off a comeback attempt, and had a win in their grasps, and then watched it slip away on a one-in-a-hundred shot. That demoralizes a team, plain and simple. And when that happens, it really effects your play on the court.
Of course, the other reason would happen to be the talent level between the two teams. The longer two teams play, the more likely it is that the more talented team wins. It's why we see more upsets in single-elimination tournaments, than in best-of-seven series. Simple and plain.
Of course, Ohio State's play with Oden on the bench against Tennessee does little to help my argument, but his play against Memphis sure helps me.
The Cleveland Cavaliers cannot win an NBA title without a good "second banana" to LeBron James
There is a popular notion that a superstar needs a second superstar to win a title. Jordan had Scottie. Shaq had Kobe. D-Wade had Shaq. Duncan had Robinson and/or Parker.
Blah. Blah. Blah.
I call a foul.
I say with enough "third bananas" and a good second string line-up, a dominant superstar can win a ring. And I think the current Cavs are situated nicely in such a role.
Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden make pretty good "third bananas". Hughes might not have the dominant jump shot you want out of a #2 option, but he's got enough defense to give him minutes, and his court vision is pretty good, too. Gooden might not be consistent, but a guy that can honestly go on the floor on any given night and give you a 20-10 game is a good enough option. Add in other lesser players like Anderson Varajeo, Sasha Pavlovic, Daniel Gibson, and Zydrunas Ilgauskus, and you've got enough support around you to outrank a second banana.
And, besides that ... Scottie Pippen wasn't the real key to helping Jordan to his titles. It was Dennis Rodman, Horace Grant, Steve Kerr, and Luc Longley.
Four #1 seed in the Final Four would be bad for the NCAA Tournament
The crutch everyone leans on to support this: the NCAA Tournament is unpredictable, and that's what gives it such great appeal.
Great. I agree.
But you know what? As of now, everyone "knows" that all four top seeds will not make it to the Final Four. That's ... *gasp* ... something predictable. If it happened once ... just once ... it'd be enough to create doubt in your mind and remove the last ounce of predictability from the tournament.
The NBA MVP will be either Dirk or Nash
I honestly think this was true at the All-Star game, but is no longer true, no matter how many ESPN and TNT pundits tell me it still is. It's become a four-man race. And currently, my top four ballot looks like this:
1. Dirk
2. Kobe
3. LeBron
4. Nash
That's enough for now ... I'm gonna try to put together a full MLB preview later this week.
Sunday, February 11, 2007
More NBA Thoughts
So, in the past three days, I've finally gotten to catch a couple of NBA games.
Ok, actually, I've caught the last two Cavs games, against the Heat and the Lakers. And they've gotten me excited about the NBA again. Gotten me paying closer attention to NBA highlight reels on ESPN and following news stories and rumors and all that. And, I've got a couple of thoughts.
1) The Cavaliers are starting to look good. The move to go to Daniel Gibson as the starting point guard looks to have freed up the offense. Eric Snow is a phenominal defensive talent, but teams are no longer able to completely ignore one of the Cavs' starters when playing defense.
It's also energized the second team, to help the bench play. Eric Snow commands that unit a lot better, because they can run a slowed down offense through him, without everyone else standing around waiting for LeBron to get invovled. Sasha and AV are really producing on that unit right now, and if they keep it up, this could be a very dangerous team in the playoffs.
2) It's becoming obvious to me that the East playoffs are going to be dramatic than the West playoffs. The Mavs are the class of the West. There is no debate about it, at least not in my mind. They have the best player in the West (Dirk), are a deep team, and have tasted some success with the bitter taste left in their mouth in falling short. The other contenders in the West just seem too flawed.
In Phoenix, the lack of real depth is showing as injuries creep in. I wouldn't bet on them against a deep and rested and focused Mavs squad. They look like a team that is going to run out of gas in the second or third round of the playoffs.
In San Antonio, the team looks a little lost. Tim Duncan is still dominant as usual, but it doesn't look like anyone else is showing up consistently to help him. It could be just an off year, or it could be the end of an era. I'd probably bet on this being the end of their era. Lucky for them, Duncan has more than enough miles left for them to retool and make another run with him.
Both L.A. teams look too inconsistent to be real contenders. Utah doesn't do anything for me, especially if they lose seeding position with Boozer out.
The West just looks clear-cut as a slamdunk win for the Mavs.
In the East, however, there are a handful of teams I can see winning the conference.
The Cavaliers are starting to gel and come together. The Pistons, since the addition of Webber, have realy looked good. The Heat have to be a contender as long as they remain in position to make the playoffs. The Magic are someone who worry me, since they have Dwight Howard (more no him later), and there's no telling what a dominant center can do in the playoffs. And, there's Washington, lead by a man on a mission (Agent Zero), who can carry a team to an upset or two, which might be enough to win a few rounds and win the conference.
That said, I think the East drama is all for naught. None of those teams would I pick to defeat the Mavs for the NBA title, save the Cavs, but that would be a very biased pick.
3) I finally am starting to see what all the talk about Dwight Howard is all about. Wow, he's simply amazing, and he's getting better every game it seems. I'd put long-term stock in the Magic, if I could trust that organization to either build around a star, or at least keep a star. Still, he's entered into my top five NBA players I will stop and watch when they are on TV, just because you don't know what they might do next. That list:
1) LeBron
2) Kobe
3) Agent Zero
4) D-Wade
5) Dwight Howard
Ok, actually, I've caught the last two Cavs games, against the Heat and the Lakers. And they've gotten me excited about the NBA again. Gotten me paying closer attention to NBA highlight reels on ESPN and following news stories and rumors and all that. And, I've got a couple of thoughts.
1) The Cavaliers are starting to look good. The move to go to Daniel Gibson as the starting point guard looks to have freed up the offense. Eric Snow is a phenominal defensive talent, but teams are no longer able to completely ignore one of the Cavs' starters when playing defense.
It's also energized the second team, to help the bench play. Eric Snow commands that unit a lot better, because they can run a slowed down offense through him, without everyone else standing around waiting for LeBron to get invovled. Sasha and AV are really producing on that unit right now, and if they keep it up, this could be a very dangerous team in the playoffs.
2) It's becoming obvious to me that the East playoffs are going to be dramatic than the West playoffs. The Mavs are the class of the West. There is no debate about it, at least not in my mind. They have the best player in the West (Dirk), are a deep team, and have tasted some success with the bitter taste left in their mouth in falling short. The other contenders in the West just seem too flawed.
In Phoenix, the lack of real depth is showing as injuries creep in. I wouldn't bet on them against a deep and rested and focused Mavs squad. They look like a team that is going to run out of gas in the second or third round of the playoffs.
In San Antonio, the team looks a little lost. Tim Duncan is still dominant as usual, but it doesn't look like anyone else is showing up consistently to help him. It could be just an off year, or it could be the end of an era. I'd probably bet on this being the end of their era. Lucky for them, Duncan has more than enough miles left for them to retool and make another run with him.
Both L.A. teams look too inconsistent to be real contenders. Utah doesn't do anything for me, especially if they lose seeding position with Boozer out.
The West just looks clear-cut as a slamdunk win for the Mavs.
In the East, however, there are a handful of teams I can see winning the conference.
The Cavaliers are starting to gel and come together. The Pistons, since the addition of Webber, have realy looked good. The Heat have to be a contender as long as they remain in position to make the playoffs. The Magic are someone who worry me, since they have Dwight Howard (more no him later), and there's no telling what a dominant center can do in the playoffs. And, there's Washington, lead by a man on a mission (Agent Zero), who can carry a team to an upset or two, which might be enough to win a few rounds and win the conference.
That said, I think the East drama is all for naught. None of those teams would I pick to defeat the Mavs for the NBA title, save the Cavs, but that would be a very biased pick.
3) I finally am starting to see what all the talk about Dwight Howard is all about. Wow, he's simply amazing, and he's getting better every game it seems. I'd put long-term stock in the Magic, if I could trust that organization to either build around a star, or at least keep a star. Still, he's entered into my top five NBA players I will stop and watch when they are on TV, just because you don't know what they might do next. That list:
1) LeBron
2) Kobe
3) Agent Zero
4) D-Wade
5) Dwight Howard
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Mock Draft Version 1
Well, the NFL Season is over, and the Cavaliers are depressing me so that i can't focus on the NBA, it's not March yet, so I can't get excited about college basketball, I don't get obscure channels, so I can't follow the NHL, and pitchers and catchers haven't reported yet.
That leaves me to talk about the NFL a little more, and this time, I'll focus on the upcoming NFL Draft, one of my favorite spectacles in all of sport. Here's my first attempt at a 2007 NFL Mock Draft, first round only.
1. Oakland Raiders
This team needs just about everything on the offensive side of the ball. It would be tempting to take a playmaker like Calvin Johnson, and if I were running the team I would be tempted to take a rock for the O-Line, like Joe Thomas. However, the NFL is a quarterback's league, and if you want to win, you need a franchise quarterback. Oakland has a chance to land one here, and I don't see them passing on that chance.
The pick: JaMarcuss Russel, QB, LSU
2. Detroit Lions
This is a team with not as many holes as Oakland, but still missing a few key pieces. I can see them trying to grab a rock for their O-Line in Joe Thomas, as among the picks that can get you real #2 overall value here, he's about the only one that will make an immediate impact. Brady Quinn is an option here, if only because the Lions have no long term answer at quarterback, and Quinn has all the desired measureables. Still, I think the pick is to try to get an impact player on defense, and see if you can compete quickly in a weak NFC.
The pick: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
3. Cleveland Browns
Another team with a lot of needs, mainly on the offensive side of the ball. Joe Thomas would go a long way towards helping a pitiful offensive line, but I don't see that as a good enough pick for a team that not only needs to turn it around on the field, but also needs to excite their fan base after a few dismal seasons. Calvin Johnson could be considered, but with Winslow and Edwards already on board, investing another high draft pick in a receiving threat seems ... odd, at best. I think the call here is for a franchise quarterback, something the team hasn't had since its return.
The pick: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The once proud Bucs defense looked pitiful and pathetic at times this year. They got old quickly, and also suffered losses through defections. Jamaal Anderson could be looked at here to try to put some spice back in the defense, but I think the real answer is to get a scoring threat for the offense, take pressure off the defense, and see if they can perform better when they don't feel the need to play perfect.
The pick: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
5. Arizona Cardinals
This one seems too easy. The Cardinals need O-line help, and the best O-lineman is still on the board. If this situation unfolds, there is no need for the Cardinals to consider anyone else.
The pick: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
6. Washington Redskins
Washington has invested money into offensive playmakers the past few offseasons, and seem to have a possible quarterback to build with in Jason Campbell. That puts the eyes squarely on the offensive line, and a defensive playmaker. No real value exists on the O-Line at #6, and so that leaves them to look for a defensive playmaker. I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade down to try to grab an extra pick, though.
The pick: Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
7. Minnesota Vikings
Odd situation here. The best value on the board is a running back (Adrian Peterson), but the Vikings have no need there. They could reach for a wide receiver (either Ginn or Jarrett might make sense), but common sense says they'll either trade down with a team looking to move up for Peterson (like the Packers, Giants, or Jets), or take a good value pick on defense. Since I'm not allowing trades in this mock ...
The pick: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
8. Houston Texans
Barring someone moving up in a trade, this could be a slamdunk for the Texans, too. After passing on Reggie Bush last year, there is no way they let Adrian Peterson get away if he's sitting there.
The pick: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
9. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins could probably use a playmaker on the offensive side of the football, so a talent like Ted Ginn Jr. could be a temptation. At the same time, shoring up the fundamental areas of football, the O and D-lines, is essential, especially in a division featuring the Patriots, who exploit bad fundamentals so easily. That puts Levi Brown and Omobi Okoye on the radar screen. Still, I think the secondary is a big concern in Miami, and so they go there with the pick.
The pick: Leon Hall, DB, Michigan
10. Atlanta Falcons
Again, a guy with stretch-the-field speed like Ted Ginn is going to get a long, hard look here, especially with a guy like Michael Vick who we know can throw the deep ball and create time with his legs to get separation for his receivers. Still, I think the secondary remains a concern for Atlanta, especialy when they need to face the Panthers and Saints twice a year.
The pick: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
11. San Fransisco 49ers
If this unfolds this way, I think the niners are jumping for joy. After seeing Alex Smith have a bit of a breakout, and getting great play out of Frank Gore, the niners have a great chance to add a playmaker to help Smith progress further.
The pick: Ted Ginn, WR, Ohio State
12. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have one of those impossible to predict front offices. That said, I think there's a value left on the board right now that Buffalo can't talk themselves out of, if they want to. And, I doubt they'd want to, since he has the look and ability to be a playmaker in the league for years to come.
The pick: Amobi Okoye, DE, Louisville
13. St. Louis Rams
The Rams were a very decent team last year, but their offense seemed to collapse when they had some O-line injuries, and their defense seemed to collapse a little too often. Hence, the obvious choices here seem to be O-Line or Defense. Levi Brown gets a bit of consideration, but that's not the best value here. This probably comes down to two linebackers.
The pick: Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State
14. Carolina Panthers
Carolina is probably hoping against hope that one of the two big Quarterbacks falls to them, as Jake Delhomme has fallen off the map. That doesn't appear likely, so they need to look to other needs. Defense is always a strength, and so I don't know why the Panthers wouldn't try to make their strength stronger and see if they can't win that way.
The pick: Paul Posluszny, OLD, Penn State
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh was a team plagued by injuries and turnovers last year, and you can't draft to get around that. So, they can take the best player available (Marshawn Lynch), or they can add depth to a position they are starting to age at (linebacker and o-line). With Posluszny and Timmons coming off the board, it makes the pick a little easier to figure out.
The pick: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State
16. Green Bay Packers
With Favre coming back for at least one more season, this team needs to find players that can impact right away to help Favre win for as long as they have him. To that end, they luck out in this scenario, as one of the top playmakers has fallen to them. If this unfolds, I don't see the Packers taking long to get their card in.
The pick: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
There's a value pick on the board that really seems to fit the mold of what the Jaguars like to get on offense: a big, strong wide receiver with good hands. As they continue to try to find a franchise quarterback, and continue to try to develop the ones they have, I think getting as many targets to help as possible is key.
The pick: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
18. Cincinnati Bengals
The need for the Bengals is good character guys that can also make an impact. That might rule out a guy like Jarvis Moss, who while a possible impact player, has had some character questions. The best value on the board right now, by far, is LaRon Landry, but he's not a need for the Bengals. I think they shore up their defense with a different value pick.
The pick: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
19. Tennessee Titans
They would be very happy to see any of Ginn, Lynch, or Jarrett fall to them. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. So, I think they have to go with the best value on the board, and just try to get pieces to a puzzle that seems ready to come together. And, they get a real steal here.
The pick: LaRon Landry, S, LSU
20. New York Giants
Another team that really want, I believe, Marshawn Lynch, but barring a trade-up, there is no way he's available at this point in time. So, they need to look at other needs. Good value is available at linebacker, and a good fit is there at cornerback.
The pick: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
21. Denver Broncos
This is another team that simply ran into some bad luck to cause them to lose the playoffs. There in a great position to just go for the best player available, and find a place to plug him in. As such, they get great value here.
The pick: Patrick Willis, ILB, Ole Miss
22. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have a large glaring need at Guard, and at Safety. They narrowly miss out on great value at safety, but the best guard prospect available is still on the board, and that should make this an easy pick.
The pick: Justin Blalock, OG, Texas
23. Kansas City Chiefs
They are probably hopeful that Levi Brown falls to them, but that didn't happen in this mock. Outside of that, they could use help at WR, but need to evaluate if they can get better value in rounds 2 and 3, than they can get here. I think they can, and so I think they keep trying to improve their defense, and get a nice hybrid-freak type player that's dropped a bit.
The pick: Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida
24. New England Patriots
The need here seems obvious, after the departures of Deion Branch and the other wideouts, and the disappointment in the AFC title game. The question becomes, do they take a WR here, or do they wait until their second first round selection. I think WR is the pick here, if only because now they get their pick of the remaining first round talent.
The pick: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
25. New York Jets
New York's biggest need is a feature running back. I'd expect them to work the phones non-stop leading up to the draft to try to trade up to land Peterson or Lynch. If they're unable to do that (as this mock suggests), I'd expect them to wait until round two to grab a running back, and nab a Kenny Irons, Michael Bush, or a Brian Leonard. With that out of the way, the o-line solidified a bit last year, they can focus on defense and try to nab an impact lineman or an impact cornerback.
The pick: Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno St.
26. Philadelphia Eagles
Outside linebacker and wide receiver look to be the biggest round-one needs for the Eagles, while other first day picks could be used to try to grab a quarterback to groom under McNabb. With linebacker depth starting to dry up, it makes the most sense to go with a first-round talented wide receiver here.
The pick: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
27. New Orleans Saints
They could use some help stopping the run, so a run stopping linebacker or a penetrating defensive tackle might be the best bet here. Again, linebacker value is not high here, so a trade down could happen. If not, I see them grabbing an impact lineman.
The pick: Quinn Pitcock, DT, Ohio State
28. New England Patriots
The Patriots already addressed their biggest 1st round need earlier in this mock, so they are really in a position where they can simply go after the best play available and find a place to plug him in.
The Pick: Michael Griffin, S, Texas
29. Baltimore Ravens
Running back is probably a need for them, but without reaching for a second rounder, they shouldn't take one here. They can probably get the same type of back if they simply wait a round, and get better value for it. Linebacker could be an issue as well, but again, depth has dropped and so has value. Hence, the probable pick is offensive line.
The pick: Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
30. San Diego Chargers
Since you can't draft clutch, the Chargers are left to look a little deeper onto their depth chart to find needs to fill in the first round. A wide receiver and linebacker depth seem to be the biggest areas of concern. There's not really a WR left on the board with value here, so I think they go for a depth LB.
The pick: Jon Beason, OLB, Miami
31. Chicago Bears
Super Bowl teams rarely have big needs, and that's the case for the Bears. Some might argue that they need to look towards a franchise quarterback, but there's not one available at #31 this year. Depth on the Offensive Line might be the best move for the Bears, and that's the way we'll lean with this pick.
The pick: Arron Sears, OT, Tennessee
32. Indianapolis Colts
Super Bowl winners very rarely have big needs, and the Colts have the luxury of trying to just add depth. One area that looked good in the playoffs but poor elsewhere was run defense, and so grabbing a run stuffer might be the best idea. Either a linebacker or a d-lineman would do the trick, but one offers much better value at this pick.
The pick: DeMarcus Tyler, DT, North Carolina State.
And there you have it ... my first mock for the year. I'm sure things will change around Combine time, and I'll need to update.
That leaves me to talk about the NFL a little more, and this time, I'll focus on the upcoming NFL Draft, one of my favorite spectacles in all of sport. Here's my first attempt at a 2007 NFL Mock Draft, first round only.
1. Oakland Raiders
This team needs just about everything on the offensive side of the ball. It would be tempting to take a playmaker like Calvin Johnson, and if I were running the team I would be tempted to take a rock for the O-Line, like Joe Thomas. However, the NFL is a quarterback's league, and if you want to win, you need a franchise quarterback. Oakland has a chance to land one here, and I don't see them passing on that chance.
The pick: JaMarcuss Russel, QB, LSU
2. Detroit Lions
This is a team with not as many holes as Oakland, but still missing a few key pieces. I can see them trying to grab a rock for their O-Line in Joe Thomas, as among the picks that can get you real #2 overall value here, he's about the only one that will make an immediate impact. Brady Quinn is an option here, if only because the Lions have no long term answer at quarterback, and Quinn has all the desired measureables. Still, I think the pick is to try to get an impact player on defense, and see if you can compete quickly in a weak NFC.
The pick: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
3. Cleveland Browns
Another team with a lot of needs, mainly on the offensive side of the ball. Joe Thomas would go a long way towards helping a pitiful offensive line, but I don't see that as a good enough pick for a team that not only needs to turn it around on the field, but also needs to excite their fan base after a few dismal seasons. Calvin Johnson could be considered, but with Winslow and Edwards already on board, investing another high draft pick in a receiving threat seems ... odd, at best. I think the call here is for a franchise quarterback, something the team hasn't had since its return.
The pick: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The once proud Bucs defense looked pitiful and pathetic at times this year. They got old quickly, and also suffered losses through defections. Jamaal Anderson could be looked at here to try to put some spice back in the defense, but I think the real answer is to get a scoring threat for the offense, take pressure off the defense, and see if they can perform better when they don't feel the need to play perfect.
The pick: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
5. Arizona Cardinals
This one seems too easy. The Cardinals need O-line help, and the best O-lineman is still on the board. If this situation unfolds, there is no need for the Cardinals to consider anyone else.
The pick: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
6. Washington Redskins
Washington has invested money into offensive playmakers the past few offseasons, and seem to have a possible quarterback to build with in Jason Campbell. That puts the eyes squarely on the offensive line, and a defensive playmaker. No real value exists on the O-Line at #6, and so that leaves them to look for a defensive playmaker. I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade down to try to grab an extra pick, though.
The pick: Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
7. Minnesota Vikings
Odd situation here. The best value on the board is a running back (Adrian Peterson), but the Vikings have no need there. They could reach for a wide receiver (either Ginn or Jarrett might make sense), but common sense says they'll either trade down with a team looking to move up for Peterson (like the Packers, Giants, or Jets), or take a good value pick on defense. Since I'm not allowing trades in this mock ...
The pick: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
8. Houston Texans
Barring someone moving up in a trade, this could be a slamdunk for the Texans, too. After passing on Reggie Bush last year, there is no way they let Adrian Peterson get away if he's sitting there.
The pick: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
9. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins could probably use a playmaker on the offensive side of the football, so a talent like Ted Ginn Jr. could be a temptation. At the same time, shoring up the fundamental areas of football, the O and D-lines, is essential, especially in a division featuring the Patriots, who exploit bad fundamentals so easily. That puts Levi Brown and Omobi Okoye on the radar screen. Still, I think the secondary is a big concern in Miami, and so they go there with the pick.
The pick: Leon Hall, DB, Michigan
10. Atlanta Falcons
Again, a guy with stretch-the-field speed like Ted Ginn is going to get a long, hard look here, especially with a guy like Michael Vick who we know can throw the deep ball and create time with his legs to get separation for his receivers. Still, I think the secondary remains a concern for Atlanta, especialy when they need to face the Panthers and Saints twice a year.
The pick: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
11. San Fransisco 49ers
If this unfolds this way, I think the niners are jumping for joy. After seeing Alex Smith have a bit of a breakout, and getting great play out of Frank Gore, the niners have a great chance to add a playmaker to help Smith progress further.
The pick: Ted Ginn, WR, Ohio State
12. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have one of those impossible to predict front offices. That said, I think there's a value left on the board right now that Buffalo can't talk themselves out of, if they want to. And, I doubt they'd want to, since he has the look and ability to be a playmaker in the league for years to come.
The pick: Amobi Okoye, DE, Louisville
13. St. Louis Rams
The Rams were a very decent team last year, but their offense seemed to collapse when they had some O-line injuries, and their defense seemed to collapse a little too often. Hence, the obvious choices here seem to be O-Line or Defense. Levi Brown gets a bit of consideration, but that's not the best value here. This probably comes down to two linebackers.
The pick: Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State
14. Carolina Panthers
Carolina is probably hoping against hope that one of the two big Quarterbacks falls to them, as Jake Delhomme has fallen off the map. That doesn't appear likely, so they need to look to other needs. Defense is always a strength, and so I don't know why the Panthers wouldn't try to make their strength stronger and see if they can't win that way.
The pick: Paul Posluszny, OLD, Penn State
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh was a team plagued by injuries and turnovers last year, and you can't draft to get around that. So, they can take the best player available (Marshawn Lynch), or they can add depth to a position they are starting to age at (linebacker and o-line). With Posluszny and Timmons coming off the board, it makes the pick a little easier to figure out.
The pick: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State
16. Green Bay Packers
With Favre coming back for at least one more season, this team needs to find players that can impact right away to help Favre win for as long as they have him. To that end, they luck out in this scenario, as one of the top playmakers has fallen to them. If this unfolds, I don't see the Packers taking long to get their card in.
The pick: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
There's a value pick on the board that really seems to fit the mold of what the Jaguars like to get on offense: a big, strong wide receiver with good hands. As they continue to try to find a franchise quarterback, and continue to try to develop the ones they have, I think getting as many targets to help as possible is key.
The pick: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
18. Cincinnati Bengals
The need for the Bengals is good character guys that can also make an impact. That might rule out a guy like Jarvis Moss, who while a possible impact player, has had some character questions. The best value on the board right now, by far, is LaRon Landry, but he's not a need for the Bengals. I think they shore up their defense with a different value pick.
The pick: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
19. Tennessee Titans
They would be very happy to see any of Ginn, Lynch, or Jarrett fall to them. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. So, I think they have to go with the best value on the board, and just try to get pieces to a puzzle that seems ready to come together. And, they get a real steal here.
The pick: LaRon Landry, S, LSU
20. New York Giants
Another team that really want, I believe, Marshawn Lynch, but barring a trade-up, there is no way he's available at this point in time. So, they need to look at other needs. Good value is available at linebacker, and a good fit is there at cornerback.
The pick: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
21. Denver Broncos
This is another team that simply ran into some bad luck to cause them to lose the playoffs. There in a great position to just go for the best player available, and find a place to plug him in. As such, they get great value here.
The pick: Patrick Willis, ILB, Ole Miss
22. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have a large glaring need at Guard, and at Safety. They narrowly miss out on great value at safety, but the best guard prospect available is still on the board, and that should make this an easy pick.
The pick: Justin Blalock, OG, Texas
23. Kansas City Chiefs
They are probably hopeful that Levi Brown falls to them, but that didn't happen in this mock. Outside of that, they could use help at WR, but need to evaluate if they can get better value in rounds 2 and 3, than they can get here. I think they can, and so I think they keep trying to improve their defense, and get a nice hybrid-freak type player that's dropped a bit.
The pick: Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida
24. New England Patriots
The need here seems obvious, after the departures of Deion Branch and the other wideouts, and the disappointment in the AFC title game. The question becomes, do they take a WR here, or do they wait until their second first round selection. I think WR is the pick here, if only because now they get their pick of the remaining first round talent.
The pick: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
25. New York Jets
New York's biggest need is a feature running back. I'd expect them to work the phones non-stop leading up to the draft to try to trade up to land Peterson or Lynch. If they're unable to do that (as this mock suggests), I'd expect them to wait until round two to grab a running back, and nab a Kenny Irons, Michael Bush, or a Brian Leonard. With that out of the way, the o-line solidified a bit last year, they can focus on defense and try to nab an impact lineman or an impact cornerback.
The pick: Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno St.
26. Philadelphia Eagles
Outside linebacker and wide receiver look to be the biggest round-one needs for the Eagles, while other first day picks could be used to try to grab a quarterback to groom under McNabb. With linebacker depth starting to dry up, it makes the most sense to go with a first-round talented wide receiver here.
The pick: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
27. New Orleans Saints
They could use some help stopping the run, so a run stopping linebacker or a penetrating defensive tackle might be the best bet here. Again, linebacker value is not high here, so a trade down could happen. If not, I see them grabbing an impact lineman.
The pick: Quinn Pitcock, DT, Ohio State
28. New England Patriots
The Patriots already addressed their biggest 1st round need earlier in this mock, so they are really in a position where they can simply go after the best play available and find a place to plug him in.
The Pick: Michael Griffin, S, Texas
29. Baltimore Ravens
Running back is probably a need for them, but without reaching for a second rounder, they shouldn't take one here. They can probably get the same type of back if they simply wait a round, and get better value for it. Linebacker could be an issue as well, but again, depth has dropped and so has value. Hence, the probable pick is offensive line.
The pick: Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
30. San Diego Chargers
Since you can't draft clutch, the Chargers are left to look a little deeper onto their depth chart to find needs to fill in the first round. A wide receiver and linebacker depth seem to be the biggest areas of concern. There's not really a WR left on the board with value here, so I think they go for a depth LB.
The pick: Jon Beason, OLB, Miami
31. Chicago Bears
Super Bowl teams rarely have big needs, and that's the case for the Bears. Some might argue that they need to look towards a franchise quarterback, but there's not one available at #31 this year. Depth on the Offensive Line might be the best move for the Bears, and that's the way we'll lean with this pick.
The pick: Arron Sears, OT, Tennessee
32. Indianapolis Colts
Super Bowl winners very rarely have big needs, and the Colts have the luxury of trying to just add depth. One area that looked good in the playoffs but poor elsewhere was run defense, and so grabbing a run stuffer might be the best idea. Either a linebacker or a d-lineman would do the trick, but one offers much better value at this pick.
The pick: DeMarcus Tyler, DT, North Carolina State.
And there you have it ... my first mock for the year. I'm sure things will change around Combine time, and I'll need to update.
Sunday, February 04, 2007
An Anti-Manning Conspiracy Theory
**warning**
This post is fueled by thoughts of a man who is very much anti-Manning Family and even moreso anti-Peyton Manning. Hence, the resulting blog entry is not fair nor balanced, and is in fact biased.
So ... Peyton Manning was just named MVP of Super Bowl XLI. And I'm not really sure why . The Colts defense and running game were much more responsible for winning that game than Manning. If the Bears had been able to capitalize on the early Manning mistake and take a 14 or 10 point lead early in the first, that game ends very differently. But they didn't, and Peyton was bailed out by a defense that took advantage of bad play calling and poor executiong by Rex Grossman, as well as two pretty good performances by his running backs.
And here is where my theory comes in.
Midway through the third quarter, the game is starting to look like it's almost certainly going to the Colts. At this point, Joseph Addai already has ten catches and is putting up an MVP-like performance.
And what do we get the rest of the game?
A large dose of Dominic Rhodes, not Joseph Addai.
No real explanation why. But I have a theory.
Peyton Manning asked for Rhodes to come in, and share the duties with Addai and put up similar stats. This would then (and I think did) cause MVP voters to say "hey, it didn't matter who was running the ball for the Colts, they were gonna run well, we can't name a Colts RB as Super Bowl MVP, let's just give it to Peyton Manning".
And it worked. Congrats on your Super Bowl Ring, Peyton, and may it be your only one.
And congrats on your MVP, as I'm certain you weaseled and politiced your way to it.
Or at least that's what I'm gonna tell myself, just so I can have something of a smile on my face when I think about the fact that you won a Super Bowl.
Monday, January 22, 2007
Is Tom Brady Overrated?
This is not a knee-jerk response to yesterday's results.
This is not a post made by a Steelers fan, bitter that his team got punked in two AFC Title Games by Brady's Patriots.
This is an honest question.
Every sports media outlet talks about how clutch Tom Brady is. He's farly clutch, and I'll never deny that. But, he's never performed when the game completely hinged on him.
And i can say that, because there is a huge difference in leading your team down the field for a game winning/game tying field goal attempt, where you just need to move the ball quickly. It's a completely different beast when you have to move the ball into the endzone for a game winning/game tying touchdown. And while Brady has been near flawless in driving his team to put them in position for that field goal, yesterday he failed in his first real post season challenge to lead his team to a game winning touchdown.
Not only did he fail, he didn't give his team a maximized chance, throwing an interception to end the game. He did't go down fighting to the last second, putting the ball where his teamates could make a play, making smart decisions to keep hope alive. He threw the ball into bad coverage, and handed the other team the game.
So, yeah ... I've bought into the Tom Brady hype. I've called him great and clutch. But I'm starting to have doubts.
And I think you should, too.
This is not a post made by a Steelers fan, bitter that his team got punked in two AFC Title Games by Brady's Patriots.
This is an honest question.
Every sports media outlet talks about how clutch Tom Brady is. He's farly clutch, and I'll never deny that. But, he's never performed when the game completely hinged on him.
And i can say that, because there is a huge difference in leading your team down the field for a game winning/game tying field goal attempt, where you just need to move the ball quickly. It's a completely different beast when you have to move the ball into the endzone for a game winning/game tying touchdown. And while Brady has been near flawless in driving his team to put them in position for that field goal, yesterday he failed in his first real post season challenge to lead his team to a game winning touchdown.
Not only did he fail, he didn't give his team a maximized chance, throwing an interception to end the game. He did't go down fighting to the last second, putting the ball where his teamates could make a play, making smart decisions to keep hope alive. He threw the ball into bad coverage, and handed the other team the game.
So, yeah ... I've bought into the Tom Brady hype. I've called him great and clutch. But I'm starting to have doubts.
And I think you should, too.
Thursday, December 14, 2006
NBA Thoughts
Well, it's been a while since I updated here. And way too long, it seems, since I made a post about something other than College Football.
So, how about an NBA post?
The NBA East is pretty much ... a mess. The New York Knicks are 1.5 games out of their division lead. That shouldn't happen in any division after more than three games are played. The Cavaliers are floundering without Larry Hughes, but still remain a respectable 13-8, and would be the #3 seed if the season ended today.
And, of course, there's the Allen Iverson trade mess. I cannot believe that there are not 29 teams interested in acquiring AI. There's not a single team he wouldn't improve, and no matter your situation, he can provide you with a lot of value.
Top Contender? He can put you even closer to the top.
Borderline Contender? He can make you a top contender.
Middle-of-the-pack team? He can put you in the playoffs.
Bottom-of-the-barrel team? He can put butts in the seats.
I'd personally start drooling if the Cavaliers could somehow find a way to get The Answer. Knowing we'd part with Hughes and at least one of our top rookies, as well as either a good expiring contract (Ira Newbie) or a young stud (Anderson Varajeo) shouldn't inhibit this trade. Lebron-Iverson-Gooden can win the East, and have a very good shot of winning the NBA Title, especially if Zydrunas Ilgauskus does anything in the playoffs this year.
The most likely end result for Iverson though, in my opinion? The LA Clippers. They have a lot of good pieces they can give up, and they have a lot to gain. They were very close to the Conference finals last year, and Iverson could be the piece to push them over the top. Plus, a superstar like Iverson could put them ahead of the Lakers in the public eye, something that has to be invaluable to the Clippers.
And, it would make sense for the Sixers, too. You don't want to keep Iverson in Conference if you can avoid it, and you for sure don't want to keep him in division (say goodbye to those pipe dreams, Celtics fans).
Outside of that, I'd really like the chance to smack David Stern upside the head. You don't switch balls in the middle of the season. You point to the stats that scoring is up, and you negotiate for any possible change to come in the off-season.
So, how about an NBA post?
The NBA East is pretty much ... a mess. The New York Knicks are 1.5 games out of their division lead. That shouldn't happen in any division after more than three games are played. The Cavaliers are floundering without Larry Hughes, but still remain a respectable 13-8, and would be the #3 seed if the season ended today.
And, of course, there's the Allen Iverson trade mess. I cannot believe that there are not 29 teams interested in acquiring AI. There's not a single team he wouldn't improve, and no matter your situation, he can provide you with a lot of value.
Top Contender? He can put you even closer to the top.
Borderline Contender? He can make you a top contender.
Middle-of-the-pack team? He can put you in the playoffs.
Bottom-of-the-barrel team? He can put butts in the seats.
I'd personally start drooling if the Cavaliers could somehow find a way to get The Answer. Knowing we'd part with Hughes and at least one of our top rookies, as well as either a good expiring contract (Ira Newbie) or a young stud (Anderson Varajeo) shouldn't inhibit this trade. Lebron-Iverson-Gooden can win the East, and have a very good shot of winning the NBA Title, especially if Zydrunas Ilgauskus does anything in the playoffs this year.
The most likely end result for Iverson though, in my opinion? The LA Clippers. They have a lot of good pieces they can give up, and they have a lot to gain. They were very close to the Conference finals last year, and Iverson could be the piece to push them over the top. Plus, a superstar like Iverson could put them ahead of the Lakers in the public eye, something that has to be invaluable to the Clippers.
And, it would make sense for the Sixers, too. You don't want to keep Iverson in Conference if you can avoid it, and you for sure don't want to keep him in division (say goodbye to those pipe dreams, Celtics fans).
Outside of that, I'd really like the chance to smack David Stern upside the head. You don't switch balls in the middle of the season. You point to the stats that scoring is up, and you negotiate for any possible change to come in the off-season.
Monday, November 27, 2006
The BC-Mess
Yeah, I know. Lame title. Sue me. Whatever.
It's a joke. The whole thing. Just a joke. The fact that Florida has basically no hope of winning the title because they don't win with enough style is a joke. The fact that Wisconsin at 11-1 has no possible chance of going to a bigger bowl than the Capital One Bowl is a joke.
We should just revert back to the old system. Name the national champion before we play the bowls, and then just play the bowls for fun and bowl trophys. Give Ohio State the title, and then play the bowls.
And they'd probably look something like this:
Rose: Ohio State vs. USC
Sugar: Florida vs. Michigan
Fiesta: Nebraska vs. Boise State
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Rutgers
Alas, that probably won't happen. And so, we'll have controversy and conflict. Arguments about who should have played for the title, and who didn't get a chance to.
It's a joke. The whole thing. Just a joke. The fact that Florida has basically no hope of winning the title because they don't win with enough style is a joke. The fact that Wisconsin at 11-1 has no possible chance of going to a bigger bowl than the Capital One Bowl is a joke.
We should just revert back to the old system. Name the national champion before we play the bowls, and then just play the bowls for fun and bowl trophys. Give Ohio State the title, and then play the bowls.
And they'd probably look something like this:
Rose: Ohio State vs. USC
Sugar: Florida vs. Michigan
Fiesta: Nebraska vs. Boise State
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Rutgers
Alas, that probably won't happen. And so, we'll have controversy and conflict. Arguments about who should have played for the title, and who didn't get a chance to.
Sunday, November 19, 2006
The Game really was THE GAME
It's amazing, isn't it, how few games that are so hyped up actually live up to the hype and deliver a game with high energy, good drama, and an amazing outcome. Three times in the past 16 months we've seen college football games deliver. Texas @ Ohio State, Texas vs. USC in the Rose Bowl, and now, Michigan at Ohio State. For everything leading up to the game, the rivalry, the history, Bo's death, the rankings ... the game still met expectations and delivered.
Of course, it delivered more than just a great game. It delivered proof that these really are the two best teams in the country. There is no doubt in my mind that Ohio State is number 1 and Michigan is number 2. I simply hope that, for political reasons, voters in the Coaches and Harris polls don't vote them that way.
And I say that for a simple reason:
There shouldn't be a rematch.
Otherwise, all the hype, all the tears, all the emotion for yesterday's game ... was for nothing. The two teams should have just played their backups if the real game was going to be played 50 days later. The winners should walk out with their prize, the losers should leave heading to a different Bowl Game, and Mike Hart should just shut up.
That leaves four basic contenders for the spot against Ohio State. USC, Florida, Notre Dame, and Arkansas. I rank them in the following way:
1. USC. If they win out, they deserve to go to the Title game, no argument about it. In doing so, they will have beaten two teams on the list of contenders above (Notre Dame and Arkansas), and will have their only loss coming on an incomplete pass on a two-point conversion attempt.
2. Arkansas. If they win out, and USC loses a single game left, they're the next-best choice. They'll have gone through the SEC unbeaten, which is a huge accomplishment, regardless of if you believe the SEC is overrated or not.
3. Notre Dame. If they win out, and Arkansas loses to either LSU or Florida, they're in, at least in my book. The pressure to win at Notre Dame is amazing, and to win with that kind of pressure is what championship games are all about.
4. Florida. They don't have a signature win. They didn't get through conference play undefeated. They're the lowest on the totem poll. They're only hope, in my opinion. to play for the title, is to win out, have USC beat Notre Dame, and then have UCLA beat USC. Very unlikely.
If, somehow, all four of those teams lose along the way (which is possible: LSU over Arkansas, USC over ND, UCLA over USC, Arkansas over Florida), give me anything but a rematch. Give me Boise State, give me Wisconsin, ... anyone but Michigan. They already lost their Title Game.
Saturday's biggest loser
Lost in the Michigan-Ohio State game was the biggest loser Saturday: West Virginia. Had WVU gotten the chance to play an undefeated Rutgers, then a win would have given them the Big East Title, and a trip to a BCS bowl. Now, that chance has been taken away from them. If they beat Rutgers, that will be Rutgers' second Big East loss, leaving the first place tie to be only Louisville and WVU, which would be decided strictly on head-to-head. And there's about 0% chance they'd get an at-large bid, not with three locked up with Boise, ND, and Michigan, and only one more to give out.
Of course, it delivered more than just a great game. It delivered proof that these really are the two best teams in the country. There is no doubt in my mind that Ohio State is number 1 and Michigan is number 2. I simply hope that, for political reasons, voters in the Coaches and Harris polls don't vote them that way.
And I say that for a simple reason:
There shouldn't be a rematch.
Otherwise, all the hype, all the tears, all the emotion for yesterday's game ... was for nothing. The two teams should have just played their backups if the real game was going to be played 50 days later. The winners should walk out with their prize, the losers should leave heading to a different Bowl Game, and Mike Hart should just shut up.
That leaves four basic contenders for the spot against Ohio State. USC, Florida, Notre Dame, and Arkansas. I rank them in the following way:
1. USC. If they win out, they deserve to go to the Title game, no argument about it. In doing so, they will have beaten two teams on the list of contenders above (Notre Dame and Arkansas), and will have their only loss coming on an incomplete pass on a two-point conversion attempt.
2. Arkansas. If they win out, and USC loses a single game left, they're the next-best choice. They'll have gone through the SEC unbeaten, which is a huge accomplishment, regardless of if you believe the SEC is overrated or not.
3. Notre Dame. If they win out, and Arkansas loses to either LSU or Florida, they're in, at least in my book. The pressure to win at Notre Dame is amazing, and to win with that kind of pressure is what championship games are all about.
4. Florida. They don't have a signature win. They didn't get through conference play undefeated. They're the lowest on the totem poll. They're only hope, in my opinion. to play for the title, is to win out, have USC beat Notre Dame, and then have UCLA beat USC. Very unlikely.
If, somehow, all four of those teams lose along the way (which is possible: LSU over Arkansas, USC over ND, UCLA over USC, Arkansas over Florida), give me anything but a rematch. Give me Boise State, give me Wisconsin, ... anyone but Michigan. They already lost their Title Game.
Saturday's biggest loser
Lost in the Michigan-Ohio State game was the biggest loser Saturday: West Virginia. Had WVU gotten the chance to play an undefeated Rutgers, then a win would have given them the Big East Title, and a trip to a BCS bowl. Now, that chance has been taken away from them. If they beat Rutgers, that will be Rutgers' second Big East loss, leaving the first place tie to be only Louisville and WVU, which would be decided strictly on head-to-head. And there's about 0% chance they'd get an at-large bid, not with three locked up with Boise, ND, and Michigan, and only one more to give out.
Friday, November 17, 2006
Ohio State Michigan
Well, this game might break the hype machine by the time it kicks off. Hopefully, that will be well deserved. But, I cannot avoid doing a full breakdown, being from Northwest Ohio. So here goes.
Quarterbacks
This is a big advantage for Ohio State. Henne makes too many mistakes, and struggles to make plays out of nothing. Troy Smith is a smart quarterback, doesn't make a lot of mistakes, and has a knack for making a big play out of thin air.
Runningbacks
This is an advantage for Michigan. Mike Hart is simply amazing, and while Pittman is durable and good enough, he's not amazing the way Hart is. The questions about Chris Wells' hands and fumbleitis push it even further into the Michigan camp.
Receivers
Everyone wants to focus on Ginn/Gonzales vs. Breaston/Manningham. And while that's all good, Ohio State has the edge in the top pairs category, and an even bigger edge when you go down the depth chart (Robiskie is developing nicely, no?). Throw in a talented tight end for Ohio State, and I think they take this category nicely.
Offensive Line
I'm going to call this a push. Both teams have good units, but I think Ohio State has a more skilled unit. Having said that, Ohio State's line is a little more banged up and has been prone to stupid penalties more often. Although, the crowd could nullify that. Still, we'll call it a push.
Defensive Line
Here's another tough one. Michigan has a slightly better unit, but Ohio State has the best DLman (Pittcock). Still, the group beats the standout, so a slight edge to Michigan.
Linebackers
Again, the same problem as above. Michigan's unit is a little better, but Ohio State has the best standout. Slightest of edges to Michigan.
Defensive Backs
Now, we reverse that problem. Michigan has the best individual (Hall), but the Buckeyes have the better unit. We'll give tOSU the edge here.
Special Teams
Both teams feature good return men, reliable kickers, and good enough punters. I think Big Blue's kicker is a bit better, so we'll give Michigan the edge.
So, now, having done all that, what about matchups that actually take place on the field. I think Michigan has an advantage on Ohio State when they try to run the ball, but I'll flip it around and give Ohio State the advantage when Michigan goes to the air. I'll be the complete opposite the other way, giving Ohio State the advantage when they pass, but Michigan the edge when tOSU tries to run the ball.
I think it comes down to Ohio State needing to jump to an early start and take away the running game from Michigan. For Michigan, it comes down to controlling the ball, running well, and keeping their offense on the field for long stretches.
This is a game that can flip on a few key turnovers, and Chad Henne makes more mistakes than Troy Smith, and the Ohio State Defense is very opportunistic.
Prediction: Ohio State 35, Michigan 17.
Quarterbacks
This is a big advantage for Ohio State. Henne makes too many mistakes, and struggles to make plays out of nothing. Troy Smith is a smart quarterback, doesn't make a lot of mistakes, and has a knack for making a big play out of thin air.
Runningbacks
This is an advantage for Michigan. Mike Hart is simply amazing, and while Pittman is durable and good enough, he's not amazing the way Hart is. The questions about Chris Wells' hands and fumbleitis push it even further into the Michigan camp.
Receivers
Everyone wants to focus on Ginn/Gonzales vs. Breaston/Manningham. And while that's all good, Ohio State has the edge in the top pairs category, and an even bigger edge when you go down the depth chart (Robiskie is developing nicely, no?). Throw in a talented tight end for Ohio State, and I think they take this category nicely.
Offensive Line
I'm going to call this a push. Both teams have good units, but I think Ohio State has a more skilled unit. Having said that, Ohio State's line is a little more banged up and has been prone to stupid penalties more often. Although, the crowd could nullify that. Still, we'll call it a push.
Defensive Line
Here's another tough one. Michigan has a slightly better unit, but Ohio State has the best DLman (Pittcock). Still, the group beats the standout, so a slight edge to Michigan.
Linebackers
Again, the same problem as above. Michigan's unit is a little better, but Ohio State has the best standout. Slightest of edges to Michigan.
Defensive Backs
Now, we reverse that problem. Michigan has the best individual (Hall), but the Buckeyes have the better unit. We'll give tOSU the edge here.
Special Teams
Both teams feature good return men, reliable kickers, and good enough punters. I think Big Blue's kicker is a bit better, so we'll give Michigan the edge.
So, now, having done all that, what about matchups that actually take place on the field. I think Michigan has an advantage on Ohio State when they try to run the ball, but I'll flip it around and give Ohio State the advantage when Michigan goes to the air. I'll be the complete opposite the other way, giving Ohio State the advantage when they pass, but Michigan the edge when tOSU tries to run the ball.
I think it comes down to Ohio State needing to jump to an early start and take away the running game from Michigan. For Michigan, it comes down to controlling the ball, running well, and keeping their offense on the field for long stretches.
This is a game that can flip on a few key turnovers, and Chad Henne makes more mistakes than Troy Smith, and the Ohio State Defense is very opportunistic.
Prediction: Ohio State 35, Michigan 17.
Sunday, November 12, 2006
Playoff Saturday
Yesterday certainly seemed like a playoff. Enough teams dropping out of contention thanks to knockout blows. Simply amazing.
(Quick note: how sick was that Cavs comeback yesterday? 11-0, down 19 in the 3rd? amazing! and completely under the radar thanks to the day of upsets in CFB)
We lost several national championship pretenders this week (Auburn, Cal, Texas) and added a contender (Rutgers), and had another contender fortify their claim (Arkansas).
With that said, here's an attempt at a top-25
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Rutgers
4. Arkansas
5. Southern Cal
6. Florida
7. Notre Dame
8. Wisconsin
9. LSU
10. Wake Forest
11. Texas
12. Auburn
13. Boise State
14. Georgia Tech
15. Virginia Tech
16. Oklahoma
17. Maryland
18. Nebraska
19. California
20. Louisville
21. West Virginia
22. BYU
23. Oregon
24. Tennessee
25. Boston College
And my updated Heisman Ballot:
1. Troy Smith, Ohio State
2. Darren McFadden, Arkansas
3. Ray Rice, Rutgers
4. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
5. Mike Hart, Michigan
(Quick note: how sick was that Cavs comeback yesterday? 11-0, down 19 in the 3rd? amazing! and completely under the radar thanks to the day of upsets in CFB)
We lost several national championship pretenders this week (Auburn, Cal, Texas) and added a contender (Rutgers), and had another contender fortify their claim (Arkansas).
With that said, here's an attempt at a top-25
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Rutgers
4. Arkansas
5. Southern Cal
6. Florida
7. Notre Dame
8. Wisconsin
9. LSU
10. Wake Forest
11. Texas
12. Auburn
13. Boise State
14. Georgia Tech
15. Virginia Tech
16. Oklahoma
17. Maryland
18. Nebraska
19. California
20. Louisville
21. West Virginia
22. BYU
23. Oregon
24. Tennessee
25. Boston College
And my updated Heisman Ballot:
1. Troy Smith, Ohio State
2. Darren McFadden, Arkansas
3. Ray Rice, Rutgers
4. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
5. Mike Hart, Michigan
Friday, November 10, 2006
I was wrong
The Big East does have a real team. Of course, I was right when I said WVU wasn't for real, and when I said Louisville wasn't for real. Rutgers, however, I believe is for real. A team that plays solid defense, has a smart quarterback who doesn't lose games, and has a solid running game can be for real. And Rutgers has all of those in abundance. So, hats off to Rutgers.
Although, their win does bring back into the fold the old playoff argument. I'd like to offer my suggestion for a playoff for college football.
First of all, we keep all the minor bowls. Most teams enter the season with no actual hope of winning the National Title. Every team can enter the season with at least a dream of a bowl game. No need to take that away from them.
Second, make it a ten-team playoff. Winners of the SEC, Big East, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Pac Ten, and ACC get automatic bids. They also get first round byes, and are seeded 1-6 by a committee. Four teams get at large bids. The only guaranteed at-large bid goes to a team that is undefeated that is not already in (for example, Utah a couple of years ago, or if Wisconsin was undefeated this year and never played Ohio State). The other spots are filled by a selection committe, and seeded 7-10.
The 10-seed plays in the 7-seed, and the 8-seed plays the 9-seed. Maybe a second-tier bowl (such as Capital One or Cotton) would host this game, or maybe you create new game sites.
Then, obviously, the teams advance through the tournament in single-elimination. Quarterfinal games are home games, semi-finals and the final and third-place game rotate among the four current BCS bowls.
So, this year, you'd have something like this: (predictions by me on conference champs, not on current standings)
Automatic bids: Ohio State (Big Ten Champ), Texas (Big 12 Champ), Georgia Tech (ACC Champ), Rutgers (Big East Champ), USC (Pac-10 Champ), Florida (SEC Champ), Boise St. (Undefeated).
At-Large Bids: Auburn, Michigan, Notre Dame
Seeds:
1. Ohio State
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. Rutgers
5. USC
6. Georgia Tech
7. Auburn
8. Michigan
9. Notre Dame
10. Boise State
Why would this system work? Simple: win your conference, and you get a shot at the national title if you're in a big-six conference. Go undefeated, and you get a shot at the national title if you're not. No one gets squeezed out if they simply take care of business.
And, how would I see this playoff playing out?
Auburn over Boise and Michigan over Notre Dame in the first round.
Ohio State over Michigan, Auburn over Florida, Georgia Tech over Texas, and Rutgers over USC in the quarterfinals.
Ohio State over Rutgers and Auburn over Georgia Tech in the semis, with Ohio State defeating Auburn in the National Title Game.
Although, their win does bring back into the fold the old playoff argument. I'd like to offer my suggestion for a playoff for college football.
First of all, we keep all the minor bowls. Most teams enter the season with no actual hope of winning the National Title. Every team can enter the season with at least a dream of a bowl game. No need to take that away from them.
Second, make it a ten-team playoff. Winners of the SEC, Big East, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Pac Ten, and ACC get automatic bids. They also get first round byes, and are seeded 1-6 by a committee. Four teams get at large bids. The only guaranteed at-large bid goes to a team that is undefeated that is not already in (for example, Utah a couple of years ago, or if Wisconsin was undefeated this year and never played Ohio State). The other spots are filled by a selection committe, and seeded 7-10.
The 10-seed plays in the 7-seed, and the 8-seed plays the 9-seed. Maybe a second-tier bowl (such as Capital One or Cotton) would host this game, or maybe you create new game sites.
Then, obviously, the teams advance through the tournament in single-elimination. Quarterfinal games are home games, semi-finals and the final and third-place game rotate among the four current BCS bowls.
So, this year, you'd have something like this: (predictions by me on conference champs, not on current standings)
Automatic bids: Ohio State (Big Ten Champ), Texas (Big 12 Champ), Georgia Tech (ACC Champ), Rutgers (Big East Champ), USC (Pac-10 Champ), Florida (SEC Champ), Boise St. (Undefeated).
At-Large Bids: Auburn, Michigan, Notre Dame
Seeds:
1. Ohio State
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. Rutgers
5. USC
6. Georgia Tech
7. Auburn
8. Michigan
9. Notre Dame
10. Boise State
Why would this system work? Simple: win your conference, and you get a shot at the national title if you're in a big-six conference. Go undefeated, and you get a shot at the national title if you're not. No one gets squeezed out if they simply take care of business.
And, how would I see this playoff playing out?
Auburn over Boise and Michigan over Notre Dame in the first round.
Ohio State over Michigan, Auburn over Florida, Georgia Tech over Texas, and Rutgers over USC in the quarterfinals.
Ohio State over Rutgers and Auburn over Georgia Tech in the semis, with Ohio State defeating Auburn in the National Title Game.
Sunday, November 05, 2006
Minus six
Steelers turned the ball over six times today and lost by 11. If they could hold onto the football, they might be undefeated. It's pathetic.
At least the Buckeyes keep winning and at least the Cavaliers are playing again.
That'll give me something good to hang my hat on, even if the defending champs are making me cry.
Actual analysis or something ... eventually
At least the Buckeyes keep winning and at least the Cavaliers are playing again.
That'll give me something good to hang my hat on, even if the defending champs are making me cry.
Actual analysis or something ... eventually
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