Tuesday, September 12, 2006

CFB

As promised, a college football post. I'll hold my tongue on this post for my rant about the lack of a playoff system, about the lack of good scheduling, and just do some analysis. I'll rant later.

Top 25

Here's what my top 25 would look like if I had a ballot to fill out:

1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Notre Dame
4. USC
5. West Virginia
6. Auburn
7. Florida
8. Georgia
9. Florida State
10. Virginia Tech
11. Texas
12. Tennessee
13. Iowa
14. Michigan
15. TCU
16. Oklahoma
17. Boston College
18. Miami (Fl)
19. Louisville
20. Boise St.
21. Nebraska
22. Oregon
23. Arizona State
24. Texas Tech
25. Clemson
26. Akron (see below)

(Disclaimer: I think polls this early in the season are stupid. We really haven't seen enough out of most teams to say "that's a top five or a top ten team" ... we have out of Ohio State, but that's about it. However, it's done and it's done, so there's mine).

Heisman

If I had a Heisman Ballot, it'd look a little something like this:

1. Troy Smith
2. Ted Ginn Jr.
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Steve Slaton
5. Kenny Irons

(Dislaimer: As the season wears on, the true best players in the nation will emerge. This will, in all probability, be an offensive lineman. As such, my Heisman ballot will reflect the actual best player in the nation, not just the best QB/RB and maybe WR. As of now, though, with mainly cupcake games played, the skill positions are shining the brightest, and as such, my ballot reflects that)

Upsets

I'd also love to give mad props to Akron for going for the win, rather than playing for overtime on Saturday. I'd say the odds that you score from that far out are, at worst, 50/50. If you kick the field goal and go to overtime, the talent difference between a middle-of-the-pack (no pun intended) ACC team and a lower-rung MAC team will be enough that the ACC team will win 90-99% of the time. And then your long, hard-fought day becomes a foot note of "gave a scare to" instead of "pulled off a great upset". So, major props for going for the win, doing the smart thing and getting rewarded. For that reason, you get honorary placement at #26 on my ballot this week, and will remain there until another team knocks you off (or you do something stupid to knock yourself off).

Props also to Air Force for attempting a similar feat, even though they fell short. Two point conversion rates are somewhere around 58% I believe, while OT success is, at best, 50/50 (lower, probably, given the talent difference between AFA and UT). The gamble didn't pay off, but I still give you mad props and great respect.

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